Future Rock Legends Predicts the 2014 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Inductees

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Nominating Committee developed one of the strongest ballots in years for the 2014 inductions. All sixteen nominees have their merits and would be worthy inductees. That being said, here are the six artists we predict will be inducted as performers:
  • Nirvana: There has never been any doubt that this band would be a first ballot Hall of Famer. The only question that remains is who will sing during the performance at the Induction Ceremony.
  • Kiss: In recent interviews, Gene Simmons and Paul Stanley have changed their tone when talking about the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame selectors. This could be a sign that both the Rock Hall and the band have grown beyond their feud and are ready to finally make each other whole.
  • Linda Ronstadt: The public proclamations of support from the Eagles earlier this year pushed the Nominating Committee to put Ronstadt on the ballot for the first time and it seems likely the voters won’t waste any time inducting her.
  • Yes: The Rock Hall’s supposed prog bias has taken a couple of major hits in the last few years, first with Genesis getting inducted in 2010 and then Rush in 2013. Both bands were inducted the first time they appeared on the ballot. Now Yes has finally been nominated so the voters get a chance to induct them as well.
  • Chic: Seven times Chic has been nominated and then failed to be inducted, so why should it be any different this year? Well, 2013 was an extraordinary year for Nile Rodgers (although he probably doesn’t have ordinary years), so there is a general feeling the time is finally right.
  • The Zombies: 2008, The Dave Clark Five; 2010, The Hollies; 2012, The Small Faces / The Faces; 2014, The Zombies?

Over 1000 voters participated in the Future Rock Legends simulated Rock Hall ballot. Here is how they ended up:

  1. Nirvana 80%
  2. Deep Purple 62%
  3. Kiss 47%
  4. Peter Gabriel 42%
  5. Yes 42%
  6. Chic 34%
  7. Hall & Oates 32%
  8. N.W.A 30%
  9. Linda Ronstadt 29%
  10. Cat Stevens 27%
  11. The Zombies 22%
  12. Link Wray 16%
  13. The Replacements 15%
  14. LL Cool J 10%
  15. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band 7%
  16. The Meters 5%

Official voting closes December 10th at 5pm, and the inductees are typically announced about a week after that. Also watch for one or two inductees in the Non-Performer category to be named. The 2014 Induction Ceremony will be in April in New York and for the third year in a row, tickets will be available to the public (exact date and location TBD).

Follow us on Twitter or Facebook for the latest.

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Future Rock Legends predicts the 2014 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees

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Future Rock Legends has announced its prediction of the 2014 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees. Check out the full story here.
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Future Rock Legends Predicts the 2013 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Inductees

Voting for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame 2013 induction class ends on December 3rd. Which of the 15 nominees will be honored in L.A. at the induction ceremony on April 18th? Here are the six artists we predict will be inducted as performers:
  • Public Enemy: A top 50 artist in Rolling Stone’s list of Immortals? That’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer, just like Nirvana will be next year.
  • Donna Summer: When the most powerful person in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction process publicly regrets that Summer wasn’t inducted before she died, well, you can be sure she will get in this year.
  • Randy Newman: He’s a Tony Award short of the EGOT, he’s obviously an industry pro, and he will fit right in at a Los Angeles induction ceremony.
  • Chic: When you have been nominated seven times, it’s not a matter of if you’re getting inducted, it’s a matter of when.
  • Rush: This is the seventh year of the Future Rock Legends induction poll, which mimics the voting on the Rock Hall ballot. Every year, the top vote-getter in our poll has been inducted, but we have never felt less confident that the results of our poll have any correlation to the results of the Voting Committee. But our bet is that the Rock Hall won’t give the middle finger to all of the fans by snubbing Rush in the same year they start an official fan poll that Rush absolutely dominated. (Deep Purple is the other overwhelming fan favorite in the polls, but it just doesn’t seem possible both Rush and Purple would be inducted in the same year.)
  • Heart: They have been riding a wave of publicity over the past year or so. A Rock Hall induction would be the cherry on top.
Like many others, we are predicting a back door induction of Albert King in the Early Influence category, exactly the same way Freddie King and Wanda Jackson were inducted. We discussed the ridiculousness of this type of induction last year, so we won’t get into it here, but it really shouldn’t happen this way. As for the other categories? As Rock Hall Monitors points out, it’s nearly impossible to predict who will be selected, however we wouldn’t be surprised to see Terry Stewart honored in the Non-Performer category in the next couple of years as he enters his final year as president of the Rock Hall Museum. We also like this intriguing rumor from Rick Vendl (an ELO superfan) that Jeff Lynne will be inducted in the Musical Excellence category. It’s also possible the Rock Hall will continue to correct past mistakes by inducting more backing groups to solo inductees as they did in 2012.

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is expected to announce the 2013 inductees the week of December 10th.


After over 2250 votes, the top five vote-getters in the Future Rock Legends poll this year were: Rush (on 80% of ballots), Deep Purple (78%), Heart (68%), Public Enemy (43%) and Donna Summer (38%). The rest: Joan Jett & the Blackhearts (34%), Kraftwerk (30%), Albert King (24%), Randy Newman (24%), Procol Harum (23%), N.W.A (17%), The Paul Butterfield Blues Band (15%), The Marvelettes (11%), Chic (10%) and The Meters (6%).

And here are the results from the official Rock Hall fan poll where the top five become an actual ballot: Rush (24.7% of total votes), Deep Purple (16.7%), Heart (12.5%), Joan Jett (8.1%), Albert King (5.6%), Kraftwerk (4.81%), Public Enemy (4.77%), Donna Summer (4.65%), Procol Harum (3.6%), N.W.A (3.4%), Randy Newman (3.36%), Butterfield (2.4%), The Meters (2.2%), The Marvelettes (1.8%) and Chic (1%).

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Future Rock Legends predicts the 2013 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees

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Future Rock Legends has announced its prediction of the 2013 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees. Check out the full story here.
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Who will Induct the 2012 Rock and Roll Hall of Famers at the Ceremony?

The last time the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony was held in Cleveland, the Rock Hall didn’t announce the presenters until late March, so there’s still plenty of time to speculate about this year’s crop. Here are some early guesses for who might hand over the trophies.What do you think? Leave your predictions in the comments.
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Using Coachella Headliners as a Predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

The 2012 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival lineup was announced today, and once again it is an impressive group of artists headlined by the Black Keys, Radiohead, and Dr. Dre & Snoop Dogg.

Let’s take a look at the festival’s past headliners to see if they will prove to be this generation’s Rock and Roll Hall of Famers. (* = already a Hall of Famer)

The only eligible artists above who haven’t been inducted yet are The Cure (nominated this year) and Depeche Mode. So, yeah, with just a few exceptions, that’s a pretty solid list of future Rock and Roll Hall of Famers (at this point in their careers, we would have to hedge a bit on the Killers, Gorillaz, Jack Johnson and Muse).

There are definitely other big American festivals which will have a similar record -- Lollapalooza and Bonnaroo come to mind -- that we will analyze soon.

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The 2012 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Inductees to be announced December 7th

The New York Times reports that the 2012 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees will be announced on Wednesday, December 7th.

The results of our poll, which simulates the actual Rock Hall ballot, show that fans would induct Guns N’ Roses (66% of ballots), Red Hot Chili Peppers (56%), The Cure (51%), Beastie Boys (50%), and Heart (47%). The artists left out this time would theoretically be Joan Jett (39%), Donovan (31%), The Small Faces/The Faces (30%), Donna Summer (25%), The Spinners (25%), Freddie King (24%), War (24%), Laura Nyro (14%), Eric B. & Rakim (9%), and Rufus with Chaka Khan (8%). The Future Rock Legends poll typically predicts three out of the five inductees.

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Future Rock Legends Predicts the 2012 Rock Hall Inductees

When predicting the inductees for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, it’s helpful to imagine the actual induction ceremony. Below is a photo from the 2009 event in Cleveland.
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If the Rock Hall Voting Committee went the same direction as the voters in our poll, you would have a ceremony with Guns N’ Roses, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Beastie Boys, The Cure, and Heart. That looks more like a viable Lollapalooza lineup than a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony. Although that would be fantastic (and deserving), the Rock Hall typically ends up pleasing an older generation.

So, taking into account the gray-haired tuxedo crowd, Future Rock Legends predicts the five performer inductees for the 2012 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame class:

Votes are due December 5th, so the actual inductees should be announced shortly thereafter. In addition to the performer, the Rock Hall may announce inductees in the Non-Performer, Early Influence and/or Musical Excellence categories which are chosen by small sub-committees.

The induction ceremony will be held in Cleveland’s Public Auditorium on April 14th, 2012. Follow Future Rock Legends on Twitter and Facebook for the latest Rock Hall news.

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Future Rock Legends Predicts the 2011 Rock Hall Inductees

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominated 15 artists this year, the most since 2006. Unlike the last few years, the Rock Hall did not announce a predetermined number of inductees, but voters will still instructed to vote for just five artists. Since the door was left open, we're guessing there will be more than five performers inducted this year. Here are the six we predict will be honored on March 14, 2011:
  • Alice Cooper
  • Beastie Boys
  • Bon Jovi
  • Neil Diamond
  • Darlene Love
  • Donna Summer

We're predicting that Tom Waits, Donovan, The J. Geils Band, Dr. John, Chic, Joe Tex, LL Cool J, Laura Nyro and Chuck Willis will all have to try again next year.

Over 1500 Future Rock Legends voters cast their ballots in the 2011 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame poll. The top five vote getters are Alice Cooper (on 81% of ballots), Neil Diamond (67%), Beastie Boys (57%), Bon Jovi (53%), and Tom Waits (44%). [The last three years, FRL voters have accurately predicted three out of the five inductees.]

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame will announce the official 2011 inductees on December 15th. Keep checking Future Rock Legends for all of the latest Rock & Roll Hall of Fame news. You can also follow us on Twitter.

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Who will Induct the 2010 Rock and Roll Hall of Famers at the Ceremony?


Eddie Vedder inducting the Ramones in 2002

With the 2010 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony just around the corner, it's time to predict who the presenters might be. Here are our picks:What do you think? Leave your predictions in the comments.
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Future Rock Legends Predicts the 2010 Rock Hall Inductees

This year, there are twelve nominees for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, and just five of them will be inducted. We've done the math, and there are 792 different combinations possible of the five inductees. Here are the five we're predicting will be honored on March 15th:
  • KISS: Yes, one of the biggest Rock Hall snubs will likely be rectified this year.
  • The Hollies: After waiting 20 years to get nominated, Graham Nash's first band will probably get in on their first try.
  • ABBA: One of the biggest bands in the world will get in this year. They were nominated in 2003, but the competition was stiffer then.
  • Darlene Love: Only 19% of our voters put her on their ballots, but our voters probably didn't get personally lobbied by Bruce Springsteen. This feels similar to the Ronettes nomination in 2007.
  • Genesis: If Genesis gets inducted, they will be the first prog rock act inducted since Pink Floyd in 1996.

We're predicting that the Red Hot Chili Peppers, LL Cool J, Laura Nyro, Donna Summer, The Stooges, Jimmy Cliff, and The Chantels will all have to try again next year.

Over 2400 Future Rock Legends voters cast their ballots in the 2010 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame poll. The top five vote getters are Genesis (on 69% of ballots), ABBA (65%), KISS (63%), The Stooges (55%), and Red Hot Chili Peppers (55%). [The last two years, FRL voters have accurately predicted three out of the five inductees.]

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame will announce the official 2010 inductees soon. Keep checking Future Rock Legends for all of the latest Rock & Roll Hall of Fame news. You can also follow us on Twitter.

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Will David Geffen be Inducted in 2010?

Roger Friedman, former Fox News columnist and now Hollywood Reporter blogger, reports that David Geffen will be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2010, presumably in the Non-Performer category. Friedman also writes that Universal Music Group head Doug Morris will be honored in 2011. Both Geffen and Morris were disciples of the late Ahmet Ertegun, whom the Non-Performer award is now named after.
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Rolling Stone's Five-Star Album Reviews

The latest issue of Rolling Stone has a five-star review of the new U2 album, which led us to wonder when the last time the magazine gave a five-star review to a non-Rock and Roll Hall of Fame artist. Over the years, we noticed that they seem to reserve the perfect rating for artists who have already cemented their legendary status (Bruce Springsteen and Bob Dylan come to mind). When was the last time the magazine went out on a limb to anoint an album of new material an instant classic?

For our purposes, we're excluding five-star reviews of reissues and compilations, which Rolling Stone hands out fairly regularly and generally are given to artists that are already determined to be "immortals." So let's find the five-star reviewed albums by artists before they were eligible for the Rock Hall. Here are the five-star reviewed albums by non-Rock and Roll Hall of Famers since 1986 (in reverse chronological order):

As you can tell, Rolling Stone is extremely judicious in handing out five star reviews, but when they do, they have a good track record of picking artists who eventually end up in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. And of the artists who are not in yet, it's difficult to find any who won't likely end up enshrined in Cleveland someday. The only two artists on the list who are eligible and not in the Rock Hall are The Smiths (eligible since 2008) and Sonic Youth (eligible since 2007). Neither group has received much attention from the Nominating Committee yet, but that is likely to change in the coming years.

One other thing to note is that there is only one debut album on the list (Appetite for Destruction). Usually, the five-star reviewed album follows other notable work from the artist, so Rolling Stone isn't gambling its reputation on a previously unknown artist.

Major thanks go out to Erik J. Heels who has been tracking these five star reviews for many years now. We'll be sure to take note of any new five-star reviews in the future.

Update: We removed Pavement's Slanted & Enchanted from the list above. That album didn't get its five-star review until the reissue came out. Can anyone confirm the others were all from their initial review?

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Who will Induct the 2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Famers at the Ceremony?

Even though the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame probably won't reveal the names of the presenters of the 2009 inductees for a of couple months, it's not too early to start the speculation (hey, it's what we do). Here are some preliminary ideas:What do you think? Leave your predictions in the comments.
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A critical look at the 2009 nominees

Charles A. Hohman takes a look at the 2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees and attempts to find the worthiest candidates. For example:
Chic

Worthy of induction? Disco has been as if not more influential on the last thirty years of pop music than the more critically-beloved punk rock. And yet only one disco act is in the Hall of Fame: The Bee Gees. However awesome “Tragedy” and “Night Fever” are, the Brothers Gibb are white heterosexuals representing (and appropriating) a subculture rooted in blackness and gayness. And probably more than any disco act, Chic’s grooves were instrumental to hip-hop’s formative years.

But will they be? In the Wennerist mindset, “disco sucks” is still a credible theory. Credible enough to shut Chic out yet again, in favor of less deserving contenders.

Hohman personally favors Metallica, Run-DMC, Chic, The Stooges and War, but thinks that the actual inductees will be the five that we have predicted. Read the whole post here.

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Future Rock Hall Predicts the 2009 Inductees

Future Rock Hall predicts the 2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Inductees will be:
  • Metallica: It was shocking last year when Metallica wasn't nominated in their first eligible year because they have the highest induction chances percentage of any artist. This one is truly a no-brainer for the voting committee.
  • Jeff Beck: Voters are also likely to respond to a legendary name who is appearing for the first time on the ballot.
  • The Stooges: Is this finally the year The Stooges get in after losing out on the final ballot six previous times? Their performance at last year's induction ceremony should put them over the top.
  • Run DMC: As hip-hop immortals they should be a sure thing, but last year's rejection of the Beastie Boys shows that voters may be taking it slow when it comes to hip-hop.
  • Little Anthony and the Imperials: Nostalgia could play a factor in inducting this doo-wop group, especially since they are peers of many of the inductees who are part of the nominating committee.

Over 1700 Future Rock Hall voters cast their ballots in the 2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame poll. The top five vote getters are Metallica (on 79% of ballots), Jeff Beck (77%), The Stooges (75%), Run DMC (69%), and War (60%). [Last year, FRH voters accurately predicted three out of the five inductees.] The poll results are just one of the factors that go into Future Rock Hall's induction forecast, but there is agreement on four out of five nominees.

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame will announce the official 2009 inductees in January. Keep checking Future Rock Hall for all of the latest Rock & Roll Hall of Fame news.

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Using Rolling Stone's 100 Greatest Singers of All-Time as a Predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

Rolling Stone magazine unleashed their latest "greatest" list today, this one focusing on the best singers of all-time (not necessarily rock, by the way).The list was compiled after Rolling Stone polled a bunch of artists, journalists and music industry folks to name their top 20 singers.

A hefty 72 of the artists listed are Rock and Roll Hall of Famers. That leaves just 28 artists who are not yet in. Quite a few of these are primarily known as country singers (George Jones, Merle Haggard, Dolly Parton, Willie Nelson, Patsy Clline), and generally wouldn't be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame anyway, although there have been exceptions (like Hank Williams and Johnny Cash). There are seven artists who aren't eligible yet, but a few of them are likely future inductees, like Nirvana, Radiohead and Guns 'N Roses.

Of the notable snubs on the list, Nina Simone ranks the highest, but many rock fans will likely point to Steve Perry's inclusion on this list as another reason for Journey's induction.

The full list:

  1. Aretha Franklin
  2. Ray Charles
  3. Elvis Presley
  4. Sam Cooke
  5. John Lennon
  6. Marvin Gaye
  7. Bob Dylan
  8. Otis Redding
  9. Stevie Wonder
  10. James Brown
  11. Paul McCartney
  12. Little Richard
  13. Roy Orbison
  14. Al Green
  15. Robert Plant
  16. Mick Jagger
  17. Tina Turner
  18. Freddie Mercury
  19. Bob Marley
  20. Smokey Robinson
  21. Johnny Cash
  22. Etta James
  23. David Bowie
  24. Van Morrison
  25. Michael Jackson
  26. Jackie Wilson
  27. Hank Williams
  28. Janis Joplin
  29. Nina Simone *
  30. Prince
  31. Howlin' Wolf
  32. Bono
  33. Steve Winwood
  34. Whitney Houston *
  35. Dusty Springfield
  36. Bruce Springsteen
  37. Neil Young
  38. Elton John
  39. Jeff Buckley
  40. Curtis Mayfield
  41. Chuck Berry
  42. Joni Mitchell
  43. George Jones *
  44. Bobby "Blue" Bland
  45. Kurt Cobain *
  46. Patsy Cline *
  47. Jim Morisson
  48. Buddy Holly
  49. Donny Hathaway *
  50. Bonnie Raitt
  51. Gladys Knight
  52. Brian Wilson
  53. Muddy Waters
  54. Luther Vandross *
  55. Paul Rodgers *
  56. Mavis Staples
  57. Eric Burdon **
  58. Christina Aguilera *
  59. Rod Stewart
  60. Björk *
  61. Roger Daltrey
  62. Lou Reed
  63. Dion
  64. Axl Rose *
  65. David Ruffin
  66. Thom Yorke *
  67. Jerry Lee Lewis
  68. Wilson Pickett
  69. Ronnie Spector
  70. Greg Allman
  71. Toots Hibbert *
  72. John Fogerty
  73. Dolly Parton *
  74. James Taylor
  75. Iggy Pop **
  76. Steve Perry *
  77. Merle Haggard *
  78. Sly Stone
  79. Mariah Carey *
  80. Frankie Valli
  81. John Lee Hooker
  82. Tom Waits *
  83. Patti Smith
  84. Darlene Love *
  85. Sam Moore
  86. Art Garfunkel
  87. Don Henley
  88. Willie Nelson *
  89. Solomon Burke
  90. The Everly Brothers
  91. Levon Helm
  92. Morrissey *
  93. Annie Lennox *
  94. Karen Carpenter *
  95. Patti LaBelle *
  96. B.B. King
  97. Joe Cocker *
  98. Stevie Nicks
  99. Steven Tyler
  100. Mary J. Blige *

* = not yet in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
** = nominated in 2009

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Using the Billboard Hot 100 All-Time Top Artists as a Predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame or: Why the Charts Don't Matter

As a part of its 50th anniversary this year, Billboard put together a list of the Hot 100's top 100 artists of all-time (well, 1958 through today). As opposed to Rolling Stone's and VH1's lists of the all-time greats, which polled groups of artists, Billboard uses their singles charts to generate their list. The results certainly show the most popular artists from the last 50 years, but are not very indicative of Rock and Roll Hall of Famers (no Hendrix, Dylan, The Who, The Police, U2, etc.). Of the 100 artists listed below, 40 are Hall of Famers. Of the 60 who are not in, 46 are eligible and have never reached final ballot for induction.

Looking down the list at the artists who aren't eligible yet (indicated with an asterisk), there really aren't any slam dunks for induction, although a strong case could be made for a few of them. If ranking high on this list were important to the Rock Hall, then Janet Jackson (the highest ranking eligible artist) should have at least received some serious consideration by the Nominating Committee, but she has not. Clearly the Rock Hall is looking for other credentials in their Hall of Famers besides having a successful singles career.

As far as using this list as prediction tool, we wouldn't recommend it. It's unlikely that over the next 20 years that any more than a handful of the non-Hall of Famers listed below will be inducted.

The complete list follows, with links to the non-Hall of Famers:

  1. The Beatles
  2. Madonna
  3. Elton John
  4. Elvis Presley
  5. Stevie Wonder
  6. Mariah Carey *
  7. Janet Jackson
  8. Michael Jackson
  9. Whitney Houston *
  10. The Rolling Stones
  11. Paul McCartney/Wings
  12. Bee Gees
  13. Chicago
  14. The Supremes
  15. Daryl Hall & John Oates
  16. Prince
  17. Rod Stewart
  18. Olivia Newton-John
  19. Aretha Franklin
  20. Marvin Gaye
  21. Usher *
  22. Phil Collins
  23. Billy Joel
  24. Donna Summer
  25. Diana Ross
  26. Frankie Valli & The Four Seasons
  27. The Temptations
  28. The Beach Boys
  29. Lionel Richie
  30. Neil Diamond
  31. Carpenters
  32. Boyz II Men *
  33. The Jackson 5/The Jacksons
  34. Connie Francis
  35. Brenda Lee
  36. Barbra Streisand
  37. Kenny Rogers
  38. Bryan Adams
  39. Cher
  40. George Michael *
  41. Bobby Vinton
  42. John Mellencamp
  43. Three Dog Night
  44. Huey Lewis & The News
  45. Gloria Estefan/Miami Sound Machine *
  46. Bon Jovi
  47. Ray Charles
  48. Chubby Checker
  49. Foreigner
  50. Kool & The Gang
  51. Ricky Nelson
  52. Duran Duran
  53. Commodores
  54. Eagles
  55. Paul Anka
  56. TLC *
  57. Barry Manilow
  58. Dionne Warwick
  59. Gladys Knight & The Pips
  60. Heart
  61. The Everly Brothers
  62. R. Kelly *
  63. Bobby Darin
  64. James Brown
  65. Paula Abdul *
  66. Richard Marx *
  67. Jefferson Airplane/Jefferson Starship/Starship
  68. Destiny's Child *
  69. Linda Ronstadt
  70. Celine Dion *
  71. Smokey Robinson & The Miracles
  72. Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band
  73. Fleetwood Mac
  74. Bruce Springsteen
  75. The Pointer Sisters
  76. John Denver
  77. Four Tops
  78. Tony Orlando & Dawn
  79. The 5th Dimension
  80. Alicia Keys *
  81. Captain & Tennille
  82. Andy Gibb
  83. Air Supply
  84. Nelly *
  85. Roy Orbison
  86. The Spinners
  87. Queen
  88. 50 Cent *
  89. Dion
  90. Aerosmith
  91. Billy Ocean
  92. Tommy James
  93. Earth, Wind & Fire
  94. Brook Benton
  95. Michael Bolton
  96. Styx
  97. Toni Braxton *
  98. Neil Sedaka
  99. Herman's Hermits
  100. Simon & Garfunkel

* = not yet eligible for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

So, for example, if you're arguing that Neil Diamond should be inducted based on the number of hits he has had, you need to be prepared to induct everyone with a higher position on this list. If you can't do that, then it's unwise to use Billboard chart success as a sole reason for induction.

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Using Blender's Greatest 100 American Albums of All-Time as a Predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

Blender recently came up with a list of the 100 greatest American albums of all-time. Clearly there are a number of problems with the list (such as using greatest hits albums, the absence of Daydream Nation, listing Canadians such as Neil Young and Joni Mitchell, nothing listed from this decade, etc.), but any ranking such as this will never please everyone.

As far as using the list as a predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, there are 45 artists who are Hall of Famers and 41 artists listed who are not. Of the non-Hall of Famers, only the Beastie Boys and Nirvana have two albums listed, and both are almost sure to be inducted in the future.

Other artists who are likely to be inducted after they become eligible are Guns N' Roses, Pearl Jam, Public Enemy, Beck and Jane's Addiction. Some of the artists who might be on the bubble are Modern Lovers, the Minutemen, Hole, Mary J. Blige and Pavement.

Some of the most popular snubbed artists are represented by Randy Newman, Kiss, Gram Parsons, Willie Nelson and The Replacements.

There are obviously a number of hip-hop albums listed, and most of those artists listed would seem to have a good chance at future induction.

The full list is below:

  1. Madonna - The Immaculate Collection (Sire, 1990)
  2. Beastie Boys - Licensed to Ill (Def Jams, 1986)
  3. Bob Dylan - Highway 61 Revisited (Columbia, 1965)
  4. Stevie Wonder - Innervisions (Tamla Motown, 1973)
  5. Guns N' Roses - Appetite for Destruction (Geffen, 1987)
  6. Ramones - Ramones (Sire, 1976)
  7. Blondie - Parallel Lines (Chrysalis, 1978)
  8. Chuck Berry - The Great Twenty-Eight (Chess, 1982)
  9. Nirvana - Nevermind (DGC, 1991)
  10. Joni Mitchell - Blue (Reprise, 1971)
  11. Public Enemy - It Takes a Nation of Millions to Hold Us Back (Def Jams, 1988)
  12. Metallica - Metallica (Elektra, 1991)
  13. Michael Jackson - Off the Wall (Epic, 1979)
  14. Beach Boys - Pet Sounds (Capitol, 1966)
  15. Marvin Gaye - Let's Get It On (Tamla, 1973)
  16. Ray Charles - Modern Sounds in Country and Western Music (Rhino, 1962)
  17. The Velvet Underground - The Velvet Underground & Nico (Verve, 1967)
  18. Prince and the Revolution - Purple Rain (Warner Bros., 1984)
  19. Neil Young - Rust Never Sleeps (Reprise, 1979)
  20. James Brown - Sex Machine (King, 1970)
  21. Bob Dylan - Blonde on Blonde (Columbia, 1966)
  22. Robert Johnson - King of the Delta Blues Singers (Columbia, 1966)
  23. R.E.M. - Murmur (IRS, 1983)
  24. Parliament - Mothership Connection (Casablanca, 1975)
  25. Notorious B.I.G. - Life After Death (Bad Boy/Arista, 1997)
  26. Van Halen - Van Halen (Warner Bros., 1978)
  27. Al Green - Call Me (Hi, 1973)
  28. Aerosmith - Rocks (Columbia, 1976)
  29. Beck - Odelay (DGC, 1996)
  30. Little Richard - Grooviest 17 Original Hits! (Specialty, 1959)
  31. Louis Armstrong - The Complete Hot Five and Hot Seven Recordings (Columbia Legacy, 2000)
  32. Curtis Mayfield - Superfly (Curtom, 1972)
  33. Hank Williams - 40 Greatest Hits (Mercury, 1978)
  34. Steely Dan - Katy Lied (MCA, 1975)
  35. The B-52's - The B-52's (Warner Bros., 1979)
  36. Chic - Risqué (Atlantic, 1979)
  37. Beastie Boys - Paul's Boutique (Capitol, 1989)
  38. Aretha Franklin - I Never Loved a Man the Way I Love You (Atlantic, 1967)
  39. Elvis Presley - The Sun Sessions (RCA/BMG, 1976)
  40. Hole - Live Through This (DGC, 1994)
  41. Jimi Hendrix - Electric Ladyland (Reprise, 1968)
  42. Patti Smith - Horses (Arista, 1975)
  43. Sly & the Family Stone - There's a Riot Goin' On (Epic, 1971)
  44. Dr. Dre - The Chronic (Death Row, 1992)
  45. Pearl Jam - VS. (Epic, 1993)
  46. Run-DMC - Raising Hell (Profile, 1986)
  47. Phil Spector - Back to Mono (1958–69) (ABKCO, 1991)
  48. Miles Davis - Kind of Blue (Columbia, 1959)
  49. Eminem - The Slim Shady LP (Interscope, 1999)
  50. Kiss - Destroyer (Casablanca, 1976)
  51. Joni Mitchell - Court and Spark (Asylum, 1974)
  52. Randy Newman - 12 Songs (Reprise, 1970)
  53. A Tribe Called Quest - The Low End Theory (Jive, 1991)
  54. Frank Sinatra - In the Wee Small Hours (Capitol, 1955)
  55. Bob Dylan - The Basement Tapes (Columbia, 1975)
  56. Rage Against the Machine - Evil Empire E(PIC, 1996)
  57. Mary J. Blige - My Life (MCA, 1994)
  58. Grateful Dead - American Beauty (Warner Bros., 1970)
  59. Wu-Tang Clan - Enter the Wu-Tang (36 Chambers) (Loud/RCA, 1993)
  60. Paul Simon - Graceland (Warner Bros., 1986)
  61. The Coasters - 50 Coastin' Classics (Rhino, 1992)
  62. Bruce Springsteen - Darkness on the Edge of Town (Columbia, 1978)
  63. Johnny Cash - At Folsom Prison (Columbia, 1968)
  64. Gram Parsons - Grievous Angel (Reprise, 1974)
  65. Billie Holiday - Lady in Satin (Columbia, 1958)
  66. Modern Lovers - Modern Lovers (Berserkley, 1976)
  67. Pavement - Slanted and Enchanted (Matador, 1992)
  68. TLC - Crazysexycool (Laface, 1994)
  69. Lynyrd Skynyrd - (Pronounced Leh-nerd Skin-nerd) (MCA, 1973)
  70. Prince - Sign "O" the Times (Paisley Park, 1987)
  71. L.L. Cool J - Radio (Def Jam, 1985)
  72. Carpenters - The Singles 1969–1981 (A&M, 2000)
  73. Pixies - Surfer Rosa (4AD, 1988)
  74. Aretha Franklin - Lady Soul (Atlantic, 1968)
  75. Lauryn Hill - The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill (Columbia, 1998)
  76. Muddy Waters - At Newport 1960 (Chess, 1960)
  77. Jane's Addiction - Nothing's Shocking (Warner Bros., 1998)
  78. Elvis Presley - From Elvis in Memphis (RCA, 1969)
  79. Woody Guthrie - Dustbowl Ballads (Camden, 1964)
  80. Nine Inch Nails - The Downward Spiral (Nothing/Interscope, 1994)
  81. Various Artists - Nuggets: 1965–1968 (Elektra, 1972)
  82. De La Soul - 3 Feet High and Rising (Tommy Boy, 1989)
  83. The Minutemen - Double Nickels on the Dime (SST, 1984)
  84. Buddy Holly - Greatest Hits (MCA, 1995)
  85. Willie Nelson - Red Headed Stranger (Columbia, 1975)
  86. Neil Young - After the Gold Rush (Reprise, 1970)
  87. R.E.M. - Automatic for the People (Warner Bros., 1992)
  88. DJ Shadow - Endtroducing… (Mo'wax/FFRR, 1996)
  89. Talking Heads - Remain in Light (Sire, 1980)
  90. Weezer - Weezer (Geffen, 1994)
  91. Eagles - Hotel California (Asylum, 1975)
  92. Lucinda Williams - Lucinda Williams (Rough Trade, 1988)
  93. Tori Amos - Under the Pink (Atlantic, 1994)
  94. Nirvana - In Utero (DGC, 1993)
  95. Harry Nilsson - Nilsson Schmilsson (RCA, 1971)
  96. Kid Rock - Devil Without a Cause (Top Dog/Lava/Atlantic, 1998)
  97. The Doors - The Doors (Elektra, 1967)
  98. The Replacements - Let It Be (Twin Tone, 1984)
  99. Stevie Wonder - Fulfillingness' First Finale (Tamla, 1974)
  100. Otis Redding - Otis Blue — Otis Redding Sings Soul (Atlantic, 1965)

Other than Sonic Youth, who do you think are the worst omissions? Smashing Pumpkins? Wilco? Soundgarden? Red Hot Chili Peppers? The Flaming Lips? The White Stripes? Devo? Let us know in the comments.

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Using VH1's Top 100 Artists of All-Time as a Predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

Now that Rolling Stone's list of 100 Immortals has been thoroughly parsed, here is another "greatest of all-time" list to chew on.

Back in 1998, VH1 asked 600 musicians to list what they felt were the greatest artists of all-time. As you might expect, the list included many artists who were already in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame at the time, but it also includes a whopping 26 artists who weren't in the Hall, but have subsequently been inducted.

There are only twelve artists from the list who are not in the Rock Hall: Nirvana, Peter Gabriel, Sting, Kiss, Stevie Ray Vaughan, John Coltrane, Tina Turner, Devo, Iggy Pop, T. Rex, Carole King and Tom Waits. (Sting, Tina Turner and Carole King are already Hall of Famers, but not as solo performers.) So, when the list was created, 62 of the 100 artists were already Hall of Famers, and of the 38 that weren't, 68% were inducted within ten years. That's a pretty good track record.

We would love to see a new poll of musicians which would rank the top artists since 1980, and see how well that would predict future Hall of Famers.

Here is the complete list:

  1. The Beatles
  2. The Rolling Stones
  3. Jimi Hendrix
  4. Led Zeppelin
  5. Bob Dylan
  6. James Brown
  7. David Bowie
  8. Elvis Presley
  9. The Who
  10. The Police *
  11. Stevie Wonder
  12. Ray Charles
  13. The Beach Boys
  14. Marvin Gaye
  15. Eric Clapton *
  16. John Lennon
  17. Elton John
  18. Prince *
  19. Pink Floyd
  20. The Doors
  21. Aretha Franklin
  22. Fleetwood Mac
  23. The Eagles
  24. Bob Marley
  25. Van Morrison
  26. Chuck Berry
  27. Bruce Springsteen *
  28. Sly & the Family Stone
  29. U2 *
  30. Neil Young
  31. The Clash *
  32. Joni Mitchell
  33. Queen *
  34. Buddy Holly
  35. Otis Redding
  36. Little Richard
  37. Al Green
  38. Elvis Costello *
  39. Miles Davis *
  40. Michael Jackson *
  41. Janis Joplin
  42. Nirvana #
  43. Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers *
  44. The Jackson Five
  45. Crosby, Stills & Nash
  46. The Sex Pistols *
  47. Creedence Clearwater Revival
  48. Van Halen *
  49. Roy Orbison
  50. R.E.M. *
  51. B.B. King
  52. Cream
  53. Peter Gabriel #
  54. The Grateful Dead
  55. The Byrds
  56. The Kinks
  57. Steely Dan *
  58. Sam Cooke
  59. Bo Diddley
  60. Earth, Wind & Fire *
  61. Smokey Robinson and the Miracles
  62. Paul McCartney *
  63. Sting ##
  64. Frank Zappa
  65. James Taylor *
  66. Talking Heads *
  67. Kiss #
  68. The Allman Brothers
  69. Pretenders *
  70. Stevie Ray Vaughan #
  71. Rod Stewart
  72. Simon & Garfunkel
  73. Muddy Waters
  74. The Velvet Underground
  75. Curtis Mayfield
  76. The Bee Gees
  77. John Coltrane #
  78. Billy Joel *
  79. Aerosmith *
  80. Tina Turner ##
  81. The Band
  82. Devo #
  83. Iggy Pop #
  84. T. Rex #
  85. Carole King ##
  86. Madonna *
  87. Santana
  88. Ramones *
  89. Johnny Cash
  90. Tom Waits #
  91. Gladys Knight & the Pips
  92. The Temptations
  93. The Four Tops
  94. Diana Ross & the Supremes
  95. Robert Johnson
  96. Lynyrd Skynyrd *
  97. Fats Domino
  98. Traffic
  99. Parliament/Funkadelic
  100. Paul Simon *

* Inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame after 1998
# Still not a Hall of Famer; Nirvana is the only artist listed who is not yet eligible because of the 25 year rule
## A Hall of Famer, but not as a solo performer

Update: This list is now next to the "Immortals" list too.

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Dave Marsh casts his 2009 Rock Hall ballot

The incomparable Tom Lane e-mails in with this interesting news:
On Dave Marsh's weekly Sirius XM show, "Kick Out The Jams", he picked 5 names he would be voting for on this year's ballot:  Chic, War, Jeff Beck, Stooges, and Run DMC.

Marsh also said that this year's ballot was "flawless" and made a remark about how he opposed the Beastie Boys getting into the Hall.

He also said that he wouldn't vote for Metallica because they are going to get in anyway. 

Marsh's belief that the ballot is "flawless" is probably not shared by anyone else outside of the Nominating Committee, but that's great he's happy with the choices he helped make.

Four out of Marsh's five selections are currently leading Future Rock Hall's 2009 ballot, so he may have a chance to see many of his choices inducted in Cleveland on April 4, 2009.

Thanks, Tom. Check out Tom's top snubbed artists here.

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The Plain Dealer make their 2009 picks

The Cleveland Plain Dealer's pop music critic, John Soeder, follows the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame about as closely as any journalist out there. He recently offered his take on the 2009 nominees induction chances, summarized below.

Safe Bets: Metallica, Little Anthony and the Imperials, The Stooges

Too Close To Call: Run-DMC, Jeff Beck, Chic

Long Shots: Bobby Womack, Wanda Jackson, War

Soeder's confidence in the induction of Little Anthony and the Imperials is a little surprising, given this is the first time they have been nominated in over 20 years of eligibility.

You can cast your own ballot here and weigh in on the nominations here.

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Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Nominating Committee met today

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Nominating Committee got together today in New York to hold their annual meeting to determine the 2009 ballot. USA Today has a feature article speculating about who the committee might nominate, and they come to the conclusion that Bon Jovi has the best chance of any of the newly eligible artists:
The closest thing to the Madonnas, R.E.M.s, Van Halens and U2s that have starred at recent inductions is probably Bon Jovi.

Another leading prospect is the late blues guitarist Stevie Ray Vaughan, but the rest of the crop — including Cyndi Lauper, k.d. lang, Billy Bragg, and metal extremists Slayer — are more marginal prospects.

Which means the committee will need to turn to holdovers — those previously eligible artists who have yet to gain sufficient support. Among them are previous nominees Chic, Donna Summer and the Beastie Boys, all of whom must confront the "Is disco or rap really rock?" conundrum that regularly polarizes voters and fans.

Bon Jovi is currently leading USA Today's reader poll with 29% of the vote. Rush (15%), Metallica (10%) and Stevie Ray Vaughan (10%) are the other leading artists.
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Future Rock Hall predicts the 2009
Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees

Future Rock Hall has announced its prediction of the 2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees: The Stooges, Chic, Metallica, Stevie Ray Vaughan, The Hollies, Beastie Boys, Run-DMC, Kraftwerk and Donna Summer. Check out the full story here.
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Using Rolling Stone's List of 100 "Immortals" as a Predictor for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

Does Rolling Stone's list of "The Immortals" hold the keys to induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame? Find out here.
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2007 Shortlist Finalists Announced

The Shortlist Organization announced today the 2007 finalists for the Shortlist Music Prize:The Shortlist Music Prize (fair warning: it's an awful website) is where "the worlds most creative recording artists honor their peers," so it is a good (but not perfect) indicator of what current artists are listening to, and could therefore be a measuring stick for future Rock and Roll Hall of Famers. Something to keep an eye on in the years to come if they can get the right "Listmakers" (i.e. no more radio DJ's).
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Analyzing Rock Hall Hopefuls Using the Keltner List

For the past couple of years, the good folks over at A List of Things Thrown Together Five Minutes Ago (ALLOT5MA) have been grading various artists' Rock Hall credentials using a method adapted from baseball analysis. The original Keltner list was developed by the brilliant baseball analyst Bill James to help determine which baseball players deserve to be in Cooperstown. ALOTT5MA adapted the list of questions for the Rock Hall (shown here from their analysis of Metallica):
  1. Was Metallica ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? Did anybody, while Metallica was active, ever suggest that Metallica was the best artist in rock music?
  2. Was Metallica ever the best artist in rock music in its genre?
  3. Was Metallica ever considered the best at its instruments?
  4. Did Metallica have an impact on a number of other bands?
  5. Was Metallica good enough that it could play regularly after passing its prime?
  6. Is Metallica the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?
  7. Are most bands who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?
  8. Is there any evidence to suggest that Metallica was significantly better or worse than is suggested by its statistical records?
  9. Is Metallica the best artist in its genre that is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
  10. How many #1 singles/gold records did Metallica have? Did Metallica ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Metallica nominated?
  11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Metallica have? For how long of a period did Metallica dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Metallica appear on? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?
  12. If Metallica were the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?
  13. What impact did Metallica have on rock history? Was it responsible for any stylistic changes? Did it introduce any new equipment? Did it change history in any way?
  14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
Obviously not every question can be answered objectively (and thus won't provide definitive answers), but it does provide a useful guide when trying to figure out the worthiness of artists who may be on the bubble.

Check out their analysis of Donna Summer (yes), Madonna (absolutely), Chic (no), Duran Duran (yes), John Mellencamp (bubble, but yes), The Replacements (yes), Depeche Mode (no), Phil Collins (no), and of course, Rush (no). You can browse all of those and more right here. Hopefully the actual Rock Hall voters give as much thought into their choices as these guys do.

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Cleveland fans back Mellencamp for Rock Hall

The results from the annual Cleveland Plain Dealer Rock Hall poll have been announced, and John Mellencamp was the leading vote-getter for the 2008 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. The other four artists who "won" are Madonna, the Dave Clark Five, Donna Summer, and the Ventures. Although the Plain Dealer poll received just 170 ballots, the results are very similar to the Future Rock Hall poll (which is still open with over 2000 ballots already cast). The only difference between the polls is that Future Rock Hall voters prefer the Beastie Boys over the Ventures.

Official Rock Hall ballots were due on Monday this week with the winners to be announced in January.

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Cast your own 2008 Rock Hall ballot

The 500+ members of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Voting Committee will be receiving their 2008 ballots soon. They will be instructed to vote for exactly five out of the nine nominees, since only five will be inducted in March. Future Rock Hall is the only place you will find an accurate representation of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot which puts you in the position of a Voting Committee member.

For the 2007 ballot, Future Rock Hall voters accurately predicted four out of the five inductees.

Cast your 2008 Rock Hall ballot here!

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Future Rock Hall predicts the 2008
Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees

Future Rock Hall has announced its prediction of the 2008 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominations: Metallica, Madonna, Sonic Youth, Beastie Boys, Afrika Bambaataa, The Stooges, The Dave Clark Five, Chic, John Mellencamp, The Cure, and Kraftwerk. Check out the full story here.
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Sticking a toe in the mud

Cleveland Scene recently took a look at the future prospects of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and found that it's as clear as mud.
[T]he Rock Hall's future [is] as sketchy as a Detroit Avenue hooker on meth. The Hall's website claims that one of its goals is "to recognize the contributions of those who have had a significant impact on the evolution, development, and perpetuation of rock and roll." But how will it measure that? By record sales? Innovation? Will there be quotas for gender and race, as well as genres like hip-hop and techno? Or is it just one big popularity contest?

Scene called and asked, but Rock Hall spokeswoman Margaret Thresher didn't have a response. "Good question," she said.

The answer is that without a concrete definition of rock, there is no science to make the induction process flawless. Outside of Nirvana, the next decade doesn't boast many safe picks. Even Madonna will be a controversial inductee, seeing as the pop diva never released a rock record in her entire career.

Then there are the guys who sold out arenas, only to end up on the cheesy VH1 rock docs -- the Poisons and New Kids on the Blocks of the world. No one would claim they were innovative or had any staying power (NKOTB didn't even rawk!). But they defined musical eras and sold gobs 'n' gobs of records (even though they now make up 90 percent of the stock at the Record Exchange).

How will this shadowy induction committee weigh those guys against, say, the Replacements and Dinosaur Jr. -- artists that aren't household names and never graced the cover of Rolling Stone, but created whole new genres and birthed hundreds of new bands?

They go on to take a look at ten artists' chances for future induction:
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"Induction Chances" formula tweaked

Astute fans of Future Rock Hall will notice that the Induction Chances formula has been adjusted to better reflect an artist's odds of ever being inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.
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The A.V. Club asks "Who's In? Who's Out?"

The Onion's A.V. Club has taken a stab at predicting which artists will someday be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. Let's take a look at their predictions and how they compare to the Future Rock Hall induction chances.
The A.V. Club predicts these artists will get in:
ArtistA.V. Club OddsFRH Chances
Madonna2-183%
John Mellencamp2-162%
Beastie Boys3-183%
Pearl Jam3-181%
Public Enemy5-174%
Coldplay5-161%
The Replacements6-161%
The A.V. Club is pretty safe with these predictions even though their odds should be much higher.
The A.V. Club predicts these artists will be "on the bubble":
ArtistA.V. Club OddsFRH Chances
Tupac Shakur8-145%
The Smiths8-173%
Dave Matthews Band9-151%
New Order10-172%
Pavement12-165%
Oasis13-171%
The Flaming Lips15-158%
Again, the A.V. Club underestimates the chances these artists have. Remember, the Rock Hall voting committee will eventually be represented by a generation of music experts who grew up in the 80's and 90's, and will have a keen understanding of the significance of these artists. It may be 20 years, but it will happen.
This last group won't make the cut, according to the A.V. Club:
ArtistA.V. Club OddsFRH Chances
Hüsker Dü25-166%
XTC40-155%
Yo La Tengo50-147%
De La Soul100-140%
Future Rock Hall and its users have much more confidence that the Hall of Fame will someday recognize these artist than the A.V. Club does.

Overall, the A.V. Club chose an excellent sample of artists to highlight, the majority of whom will likely be in the Rock Hall within 25 years.

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