- Alice Cooper
- Beastie Boys
- Bon Jovi
- Neil Diamond
- Darlene Love
- Donna Summer
We're predicting that Tom Waits, Donovan, The J. Geils Band, Dr. John, Chic, Joe Tex, LL Cool J, Laura Nyro and Chuck Willis will all have to try again next year.
Over 1500 Future Rock Legends voters cast their ballots in the 2011 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame poll. The top five vote getters are Alice Cooper (on 81% of ballots), Neil Diamond (67%), Beastie Boys (57%), Bon Jovi (53%), and Tom Waits (44%). [The last three years, FRL voters have accurately predicted three out of the five inductees.]
The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame will announce the official 2011 inductees on December 15th. Keep checking Future Rock Legends for all of the latest Rock & Roll Hall of Fame news. You can also follow us on Twitter.
For those new to analyzing the nominees on the R&RHoF ballots, many people say many things about how people wind up on the ballot. They insist that the ballot is dominated by a certain criteria, or that at least one act on every ballot must meet a certain criteria. Often, these opinions are incorrect, but you need it broken out before you can challenge or affirm these opinions.
So, with that perspective, let's break up these nominees and examine them based on different criteria, with an emphasis on the criteria people have claimed in the past made a difference about who gets nominated.
Note: unlike previous years, this year’s announcement lists the members being considered, which simplifies the analyses greatly.
First, by subgenre:
One metal (if you’re 70s)/hard rock (if you’re 80s) act (Alice Cooper)
One hard rock act (Bon Jovi)
Two rap acts (Beastie Boys and LL Cool J)
Two disco acts (Chic and Donna Summer)
One Brill building pop act (Neil Diamond)
One folk-rock act (Donovan)
One New Orleans r&b act (Dr. John)
One r&b revival act (J. Geils Band)
One 60s girls group (Darlene Love)
Two singer-songwriters (Laura Nyro and Tom Waits)
One soul act (Joe Tex)
One r&b act (Chuck Willis)
Next, by members:
Alice Cooper (Vincent Furnier, Glen Buxton, Michael Bruce, Dennis Dunaway, Neal Smith)
Beastie Boys (Mike D (Mike Diamond), MCA (Adam Yauch) and Ad-Rock (Adam Horovitz))
Bon Jovi (Jon Bon Jovi, Richie Sambora, David Bryan, Tico Torres and Alec John)
Chic (Bernard Edwards, Nile Rodgers, Tony Thompson, Norma Jean Wright, Alfa Anderson and Luci Martin)
Neil Diamond (himself)
Dr. John (himself)
J. Geils Band (Jerome Geils, Peter Wolf, Magic Dick, Danny Klein, Stephen Jo Bladd, Seth Justman)
LL Cool J (himself)
Darlene Love (herself)
Laura Nyro (herself)
Donna Summer (herself)
Joe Tex (himself)
Tom Waits (himself)
Chuck Willis (himself)
Next, by previous inductions. Clyde McPhatter was the first person to be inducted more than once into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, as a soloist and as a member of the first incarnation of the Drifters. So, when someone is inducted more than once, we say he has joined the Clyde McPhatter Club.
So, notice there are no names in bold above? No one is poised to join the Clyde McPhatter Club this year. None. Zip.
Next, by race:
All members of Alice Cooper, Beastie Boys, 4 members of Bon Jovi, Neil Diamond, Donovan, Dr. John, J. Geils Band, Laura Nyro and Tom Waits.
All members of Chic, LL Cool J, Darlene Love, Donna Summer, Joe Tex and Chuck Willis.
Tico Torres of Bon Jovi (Cuban American, actually)
Next, by gender:
Next, by nationality based on place of birth:
British: 1 (Donovan)
The rest are Americans.
Next, by the number of top 40 hits on the Billboard 100:
Alice Cooper (both band and solo): 10 Beastie Boys: 3
Bon Jovi: 21 Chic: 5
Neil Diamond: 37 Donovan: 12 Dr. John: 1 J. Geils Band: 10 LL Cool J: 14
Darlene Love: 2, unless you count all the hits she recorded with the Blossoms under other names
Laura Nyro: Of course not; that's why everybody else had hits with her songs!
Donna Summer: 20
Joe Tex: 9 Tom Waits: Of course not, that’s why everybody else sings his songs! Chuck Willis: 4
Next, by dead members. Currently, there are 6:
Bernard Edwards and Tony Thompson of Chic
Glen Buxton of Alice Cooper Laura Nyro
Joe Tex Chuck Willis
Next, by number of years eligible:
LL Cool J, 2nd year of eligibility
Beastie Boys, 4th year of eligibility
Bon Jovi, 3rd year of eligibility
Chic, 9th year of eligibility
Tom Waits, 13th year of eligibility
Donna Summer, 14th year of eligibility (a cover of "Sally Go 'Round The Roses")
J. Geils Band, 16th year of eligibility
Alice Cooper, 17th year of eligibility Dr. John, 18th year of eligibility
Laura Nyro, 19th year of eligibility
Donovan, 20th year of eligibility
Joe Tex, 21st year of eligiblity
Darlene Love, 23rd year of eligibility
Neil Diamond, 23rd year of eligiblity Chuck Willis, 35th year of eligibility
Next, number of times nominated, including years nominated:
Beastie Boys – two times (2007, 2010)
Bon Jovi – first time nominated Chic - six times (2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010)
Alice Cooper – first time nominated Neil Diamond – first time nominated Donovan – first time nominated Dr. John – first time nominated J. Geils Band – three times (2004, 2005, 2010) LL Cool J - two times (2009, 2010)
Darlene Love - three times (1998, 2009, 2010)
Laura Nyro - two times (2009, 2010)
Donna Summer - three times (2007, 2009, 2010)
Joe Tex – four times (1997, 2005, 2006, 2010) Tom Waits – first time nominated Chuck Willis – five times (1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 2010)*
Although the nominators favored first time nominees in recent years, this year they are favoring repeat nominees (6 first time nominees to 9 repeat nominees, including Chic and Chuck Willis, currently the most nominated acts yet to be inducted).
*Some sources say Chuck Willis was also nominated in 1985. However, there were no nominee ballots in 1985, because there were no voters in 1985. In 1985, a group of men gathered together and selected the first class of inductees to the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, inducted in the ceremony that took place in 1986. It wasn't until 1986 that the R&RHoF had nominators and voters.